An
analysis of Egyptian foreign policy under Mursi’s presidency at this
early moment aims to uncover its future and strategic direction, as this
direction will influence the entire region, as every country is related
to Egypt, the heart of the Arab world.In
order to make the analysis it is necessary to determine the variables
that hold priority and control this foreign policy, is it security,
religion, economy, regional role, engagement with the West, or
Arab-Israeli conflict?
Revolutionary
systems usually tend toward revolutionary foreign policies as a result
of many factors: the struggle for legitimacy between revolutionary
groups, enthusiasm and lack of political experience, the need to commit
to the revolutionary discourse which the revolutionaries claimed during
the struggle against the old system, the power of extremists within
revolutionary movements during the first period as they hold legitimacy
of achieving the victory, the attempt to divert public attention from
internal challenges by magnifying external threats, and finally the
ideology of revolutionary groups, their world view and role conception ,
which motivate the other factors.
It
is worth noting that the foreign policy of the Muslim Brotherhood in
Egypt is not revolutionary at all, except in its discourse. They are
presenting a positive position toward the US and international
institutions, engaging with Turkey and Gulf states, dealing cautiously
with Hamas, ignoring Israeli violations and recognizing the Camp David
peace treaty, adopting a “cold” policy toward Iran and an aggressive one
toward the Syrian regime. This early pragmatism can be explained by
many factors:
The
Muslim Brotherhood separates its vision for internal policies from
external ones; at the national level it uses ideological and religious
discourse while using pragmatism in foreign policies. This separation is
also at the organizational level after the formation of a political
party – Freedom and Justice Party – which is separated from the
religious institution of Muslim Brotherhood.
The
Muslim Brotherhood is concerned primary with the challenges of the
economy and development, as it considers that these issue will determine
its legitimacy in public opinion which is crucial for the next
elections.
It
tends to methodologically address social and political challenges step
by step and not in a revolutionary way. It believes first in founding
the Muslim individual then the Muslim family, then the Muslim society,
then Islamic government, and finally mastering the world. This way of
thinking is expressed by talking about priorities, “jurisdiction of
priorities” in a way that allows the group to ignore issues that it
cannot deal with at a certain moment.
Finally,
all Islamic actors in the region are testing a “political adaptation”
process. They are becoming more realistic and aware of the limits of
ideology in politics.
However,
even with this pragmatism, the Muslim Brotherhood needs to preserve its
religious image, which is necessary in order to legitimatize its
leadership role, nationally and regionally. For that, it is aiming to
build Egypt’s regional role by claiming leadership of the Sunni Arabs,
as was apparent in Mursi’s speech in Tehran, the emotional position
about the Syrian Crisis, delaying the normalization of relations with
Iran, and claiming that it represents moderate Islam.
What about the Gaza seize?
What about its relations with Saudi Arabia and its sectarian role?
What about Turkey and its strategic partnership with NATO and the US?
What about its position toward Israel?
Will Mursi ask for certain measures in these cases as he did for the Syrian crisis?
Religion and defending Sunnis, for the Muslim Brotherhood, stop at the Palestinian borders.
The
Muslim Brotherhood is claiming its intention to regain Egypt’s regional
leadership after years of retreat under Mubarak’s rule. But is this
possible through begging for loans, donations and investments from
states that do not have an interest in an independent Egyptian regional
role? These
states – such as Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and the US – will offer some
economic benefits, but that will be the price for reproducing Mubarak’s
foreign policy with a religious cover. Does the Muslim Brotherhood think it can achieve political independence by economic dependence?
On
the contrary, Egypt’s economic opportunities must be dependent on its
political vision, and this vision must be based on Egypt’s ability to be
the core of a regional integration process. Egypt can play a neutral
and balanced role between Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Turkey in order
to enhance this regional integration process. Also,
the Muslim Brotherhood must realize that the solution for Egypt’s
economic problems is based primarily on an independent national decision
and internal policies such as a stable and legitimate political system,
efficiency of government, quality of the educational system and public
facilities. For example, the reformation of Suez Channel could increase
its profits by tens of billions of dollars.
ليست هناك تعليقات:
إرسال تعليق